Green Energy Poland SA

6. Demand for energy from RES in Poland – the forecast

In 2009, the total supply of energy from RES was 253 PJ, which is equal to 70 TWh. This represents 9 % of total primary energy in Poland in 2009. The largest share, more than 86 %, has the biomass.

Figure 1: Structure of energy production from RES in 2009. Source: RES in 2009. GUS, 2010

Production of electricity from RES in 2009 was at level of 8,7 TWh which amounted to: biomass 4,9 TWh, biogas 0,3 TWh, wind 1,1 TWh and water 2,4 TWh.

Figure 2: Structure of electricity production from RES in 2009. Source: RES in 2009. GUS, 2010

 

Heat production from RES amounted in 2009 9,9 PJ, which is equal to 2,7 TWh. It comes mainly from solid biomass (92 %). Other carriers are: biogas, geothermal and solar energy.

The structure of transport biofuel production in 2009 was as follows: biodiesel from rapeseed (72,55 %) and bioethanol from sugar and starch (27,45 %). Total biodiesel production in 2009 totaled 336,832 tons (3,9 TWh) and the consumption was 510 000 tons. Bioethanol production was 127,344 tons (1,1 TWh), while consumption stood at 264,297 tons. This means that Poland in 2009 imported these fuel.

In line with EU requirements, it was assumed that the share of renewable energy in Poland in final energy consumption will reach 15 % in 2020, and the share of biofuels in transport fuel market will reach 10%[1]. Attaining these objectives requires in the year 2020 the gross final energy consumption from renewable sources at 120,8 TWh, of which: electricity 31,2 TWh, heat and cold 72,8 TWh and transport biofuels 16,8 TWh.

Figure 3: The structure of demand for RES in 2020 [in %]

Table 3: Gross demand for renewable energy sources in 2020 [TWh]

Fuel

2020

Solid biomass

73,23

Biogas

9,86

Wind

13,70

Water

3,16

Solar

1,46

Geothermal

2,58

Biofuels

16,79

Total

120,77

In the production of electricity from renewable sources the largest share will have wind energy – 13.7 TWh, which will constitute 18.4% of total electricity production. Heat production is dominated by a solid biomass.

Table 4: Structure of electricity production from renewable sources by the year 2030 [GWh]

  2010

2020

2030

Electricity

8313.86

31239.19

39491.42

Solid biomass

3470.89

10375.47

11568.48

Biogas

365.11

4005.76

6890.62

Wind

2023.23

13702.17

17790.50

Water

2453.46

3155.77

3240.66

Photovoltaics

0

1.16

24.41

Source: PEP by 2030

Table 5: Installed capacity of RES [in MW]

 

2010

2020

2030
Small water

107

282

298

Wind

976

6089

7867

Solid biomasst [CHP]

40

623

1218

Biogas [CHP]

74

802

1379

Photovoltaics

0

2

32

Source: PEP by 2030

In the case of transport biofuels by 2015 will be produced the first-generation biofuels (bioethanol and biodiesel). Only in the next few years will be introduced second-generation (biofuels and biohydrogen).


[1] Directive 2009/28/EU

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